Build a 13-week cash flow forecast
Make one column for each of the next 13 weeks. Start with cash you can actually use, add receipts on their expected collection dates and subtract payments on their due dates. Look for the first week you fall below your operating cushion, even if the quarter ends with cash in the bank.
Build the first column from the bank
Use reconciled, unrestricted cash at the cutoff. Adjust for outstanding checks or transfers once: either in opening cash or as payments to clear, never both. Keep undrawn credit outside the opening balance. Show a planned draw on its own financing line so you can see the gap before borrowing.
Ask collections for the expected payment date on the largest open invoices. Ask payroll for pay dates, purchasing for committed supplier payments and the owner for taxes, debt service and capital purchases. Record the source of each uncertain date. Carry each week’s ending cash into the following week.
Two weeks from an illustrative forecast
Figures below are in thousands of US dollars. In this example the owner chooses 10 as the minimum cash cushion. The other eleven columns follow the same arithmetic.
| Cash movement | Week 1 | Week 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Opening cash | 40 | 17 |
| Customer receipts | 35 | 45 |
| Payroll and suppliers | −58 | −44 |
| Ending cash | 17 | 18 |
Move a receipt of 15 from week one to week two. Week one now ends at 2, which is 8 below the cushion. Week two still ends at 18 if the customer pays then. That difference tells you when to confirm the receipt, revisit a discretionary purchase or discuss a temporary draw before payroll is due.
Roll it forward on Monday
Replace last week’s estimates with actual bank movements. Mark each miss as timing, amount or omission. A late receipt moves forward; a lost order comes out. Reconcile the new opening balance, add week thirteen and assign one action to the person who can influence the lowest projected balance. Keep last week’s version so repeated misses are visible.